Deloitte Holiday Survey Results 2015

Deloitte Holiday Survey Results 2015 from Marc Morelli

 Deloitte Holiday Survey Results 2015

1. 1. 30th anniversary edition 2015 holiday survey October 2015
2. 2. 2 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Agenda Economic outlook and spending 4 Holiday shopping: What, when, where and why 11 Digital influence: Use of online and mixed channels 22 Retailer policies: Shipping and returns 33 Data security 38
3. 3. 3 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Deloitte’s 2015 holiday survey takeaways Economic outlook and spending Holiday shopping: What, where, when, and why Digital influence: Use of online and mixed channels Retailer policies: Shipping and returns Data security • Consumer spending plans have rebounded to the highest levels since 2000. • The primary driver is continued improvement in household financial situation. • While overall spending is up, non-gift spending continues to outpace gift spending substantially. • Shoppers report an increased propensity to buy for themselves when they shop for others. • Clothing and gift cards remain the top gift giving categories. • Over the past five years, jewelry, money and food/liquor have trended upward, while books have trended down. • Also over this period, spending at discount/value department stores is down slightly, while shopping at nearly every other venue continues to rise. • Shoppers claim to be retailer loyal, however a majority will try new retailers for some of their purchases, and many will consider local or non- traditional venues. • Timing continues to shift into December, with fewer consumers starting early. • Consumers rely less on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. • Omni-channel shoppers expect to spend 75% more than store-only holiday shoppers this season. • Webrooming, showrooming and in-store pickup (BOPUS) present as significant trends. • Shoppers will rely heavily on the Internet as a research tool, and many will make purchase decisions before approaching the point of sale. • Free shipping and easy returns top the list of retailer policies, with price matching gaining in popularity. • Free shipping is considered more important than fast shipping, however shoppers expect free shipping to be fast and are not willing to pay much to expedite it. • When it comes to returns, shoppers care most flexibility – easy refunds and returns across store locations and channels. • Personal data protection still concerns many shoppers, whether they transact online or in store. • Most consumers will not let a retailer’s past data breach dissuade them from shopping, but security assurances go a long way for some. • Site familiarity, site security and consumer protection services all reassure shoppers transacting online. All data in this report comes from Deloitte’s 2015 annual holiday survey.
4. 4. Economic outlook and spending
5. 5. 5 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Consumer spending plans have rebounded to the highest levels since 2000. 82% 66% 64% 67% 71% 68% 71% 59% 41% 51% 62% 59% 63% 71% 69% 75% 18% 34% 36% 33% 29% 32% 29% 41% 59% 49% 38% 42% 37% 29% 31% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spend more/same Spend less Recession Recession 8% 11% 10% 13% 13% 15% 19% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spend more “How will your total holiday spending compare with last year's holiday season?”
6. 6. 6 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Current household financial situation The primary driver is continued improvement in household financial situation. 15% 24% 21% 28% 29% 31% 33% 41% 42% 37% 37% 40% 41% 41% 44% 34% 42% 35% 30% 29% 26% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 A lot/Somewhat better The Same A lot/Somewhat worse Positive or neutral on current household financial situation: 83% of households earning $100K or more 71% of households earning less than $100K
7. 7. 7 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. While overall spending is up, non-gift spending continues to outpace gift spending substantially. “How much do you expect you will spend during the upcoming year-end holiday season on each of the following items?” Fewer than half (44%) of respondents have a specific budget in mind this holiday season $395 $386 $421 $458 $487 $707 $648 $733 $841 $976 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Gifts Non-Gifts +6% vs. 2014 +16% vs. 2014 Category Change vs. 2014 Gifts +6% Décor/furnishings +33% Non-gift clothing +26% Socializing outside home +12% Entertaining at home +10% Other +10% Total +12.5%
8. 8. 8 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Consistent with these results, the total number of gifts purchased is expected to rise only modestly and remain below pre-2011 levels. 22.0 23.1 21.5 18.2 16.8 14.7 12.8 12.9 13.4 13.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 “In total, what is the number of gifts, including gift certificates/cards that you expect to buy this holiday season?”
9. 9. 9 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Shoppers report an increased propensity to reward themselves during the holiday season. Making Deferred Big Ticket Purchases 20% Use holiday promotions to make a big ticket purchase on which I've held off Shopping for Themselves Claim to also buy gifts for themselves when shopping for others 36% 40% 43% 50% 2012 2013 2014 2015
10. 10. 10 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Changes in personal financial circumstances are more likely to influence spending plans than shifts in the macro-economy. 72% 29% 22% 14% 11% If there is a negative change in my personal financial situation (job loss, unexpected expense, etc.) If gas prices rise If there is generally bad economic news in the U.S. If the stock market has more large downturns If there is generally bad economic news internationally “Which of the following economic factors, if any, could change your holiday spending plans?”
11. 11. Holiday shopping: what, when, where and why
12. 12. 12 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. While holiday gift categories remain fairly stable, jewelry, money and food/liquor have trended upward over the past five years, while books have trended down. “Which of the following types of gifts do you plan to buy this holiday season?” *Electronics category is comprised of home/personal/car electronics, computers and tablets, game consoles and video games Gift cards (38%) and cash (38%) rank No. 1 and 2 as the gifts respondents would like to receive Top 10 gifts consumers plan to buy 48% 48% 45% 46% 39% 36% 29% 32% 27% 31% 35% 30% 25% 29% 16% 22% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Clothing Gift cards or gift certificates Electronics (net)* Books Games, Toys, Dolls, etc. Food/Liquor Money (Cash or check) Jewelry
13. 13. 13 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Relative to five years ago, spending at discount/value department stores is down slightly, while shopping at nearly every other venue continues to rise. “At which of the following retail sources will you likely shop for holiday gifts?” 4.5 — average number of venues consumers expect to shop 6.2 — average number of shopping trips consumers expect to take 48% 45% 23% 30% 44% 47% 18% 24% 19% 23% 14% 20% 12% 16% 11% 17% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Traditional Department Stores Toy Stores Off-Price Stores Restaurants/Fast-Food Home Improvement Stores Specialty Clothing Internet (including auction sites) Discount/Value Department Stores
14. 14. 14 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Overall, shoppers claim to be retailer loyal, making the majority of their purchases from merchants they have visited before. Same stores and online retailers New/ different stores and online retailers “What percentage of all of your holiday gifts and shopping this year will be at those same locations, and what percentage do you think will be at new stores or online retailers? 75% 25%
15. 15. 15 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. However, data shows that shopper loyalty varies considerably, depending on whether the consumer is seeking a product in store or online. “If a product wasn’t available in the store, which would you most likely do first?” “If the product wasn’t available on a store’s website, which would you most likely do first?” 3 3 38 56 Same retailer – another store or website (Loyal) Another retailer (Not loyal) Would not continue shopping for product N/A 3 5 76 15 Another retailer (Not loyal) Same store in person (Loyal) Would not shop online N/A
16. 16. 16 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Further, most will shop new merchants for some of their purchases, and many will consider local and non-traditional venues. 67% 54% 26% 26% 10% Local store/business New websites I have not visited before Festivals or fairs Temporary/seasonal store or pop-up Work place vendors “What types of new/different stores or online retailers are you likely to try?” (Among the 72% who will shop at new/different stores) Will shop new/different stores or online retailers 72%
17. 17. 17 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. When asked why they seek the venues they do, consumers highlight distinct motivators, with local stores fulfilling a very specific set of needs. 70% 54% 59% 54% Better prices Ability to see and touch the product To support the local economy To find one-of-a-kind gifts Why go to a physical store? Top motivators for venue choice Why try a new store? Why shop local? 50% of holiday spending is expected to occur in physical stores
18. 18. 18 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. A small percentage will buy subscription products or services, mainly in the media and food/beverage categories. 36% 35% 35% 27% 26% 24% 24% 23% 20% 19% 16% 16% 4% Wine or beer Magazines Gourmet food or snacks Coffee /tea Books Health and Beauty products Clothing or shoes Personal grooming products (razors, etc.) Perfume or cologne Flowers/plants Hot sauce / condiments Cheese Other “Which of the following products or services do you plan on giving as a subscription-based gift?” 6% Plan to buy subscription products or services Among the 6%
19. 19. 19 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Timing for the bulk of holiday shopping continues to shift into December, with fewer consumers starting early. “Which one of these days or months do you expect to do the majority of your holiday shopping this year?" 27% 25% 30% 26% 23% 34% 36% 33% 31% 33% 39% 39% 37% 43% 44% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Early Before October/ October/ Early November Late November Black Friday/ Cyber Monday/ Late November December or Later December/ January 16% -- Percent of households planning to shop after Christmas Day, December 25th
20. 20. 20 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Also, consumers continue to rely less on traditional shopping days (Black Friday, Cyber Monday) for their holiday shopping. 47% 52% I don't rely on Black Friday as much as I used to 2014 2015 36% 41% I don't rely on Cyber Monday as much as I used to 2014 2015 Shopper attitudes toward traditional shopping days
21. 21. 21 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Holiday shoppers tend to approach the whole season with an expectation of sales and promotions. 67%Plan to buy items “on sale” 47%Plan to use store coupons
22. 22. Digital influence: Use of online and mixed channels
23. 23. 23 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Digital influence matters: Omni-channel shoppers expect to spend 75% more than store-only holiday shoppers this season. Consumers’ expectations for holiday spending on: Omni-channel (shop mobile, store, Internet combined) Shop stores only Gifts $622 $429 Total* $1,829 $1,040 *Total includes the following categories: “gifts,” “socializing away from home,” “entertaining at home,” “non-gift clothing for family or yourself,” “home/holiday furnishings,” and “any other holiday-related spending not listed.” Smartphone owners will spend 34% more on gifts this holiday season than non-smartphone owners and those who will not use a smartphone to assist in holiday shopping (up 5% vs. 2014) Omni-channel shoppers are more likely to be younger (<44), have children, and have higher household income ($84K vs. $53K) + 45% + 75%
24. 24. 24 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Consumers intend to mix online and physical store channels in a variety of ways, with webrooming dominating the trend. Showrooming … first go to a store to look for an item, then search online for the best price, and then purchase online 52% Webrooming … first look at items online, then go to a store to see the item, then make purchase at store 69% Percentages combine those respondents who selected answer choices “Very likely” and “Somewhat likely” “How likely will you be this holiday season to … ” Buy Online Pick Up in Store (BOPUS) … buy a product online and then instead of having it shipped to you, you will go to the store to pick up the item 43% + 3 vs. 2014
25. 25. 25 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. BOPUS appeals for reasons of shipping cost reduction and immediacy of product acquisition. 43% Likely to do store pick-up 67% 49% 35% 34% 21% 14% I can save on shipping charges I can get the item faster I can shop for other items on the same trip I can see the product first before I accept Worried about shipping damage Worried about theft during shipping “Why are you likely to buy online but pick up at the store?” (Among the 43% who are likely to do store pick-up)
26. 26. 26 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Mobile device ownership continues to grow steadily, with almost half of consumers owning both smartphones and tablets. 50% 61% 67% 77% Own smartphone 2012 2013 2014 2015 + 27 vs. 2012 + 16 vs. 2013 + 10 vs. 2014 38% 50% 56% Own tablet 2013 2014 2015 + 18 vs. 2013 + 6 vs. 2014 49% of consumer respondents own both a smartphone and a tablet Mobile device ownership
27. 27. 27 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Smartphone owners rely on their devices for a wide range of shopping information and activities. “In which of the following ways, if any, do you plan to use your smartphone to assist you in your holiday shopping?” (Among the 78% of smartphone owners who will use a smartphone for holiday shopping) Responses under 27% not shown 60% 55% 50% 46% 45% 45% 43% 41% 39% 33% 27% Get store locations Check/compare prices Shop/browse online Read reviews Get product information Get/use discounts, coupons, sales information Check product availability in a store or website Make a purchase online Access social networks Get text messages or exclusive deals from retailers Scan product barcodes to find more product information +6 vs. 2014 +3 vs. 2014 -4 vs. 2014 +4 vs. 2014 +3 vs. 2014 Use smartphone for holiday shopping 78%
28. 28. 28 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. “What percentage of your total holiday spending (online or in-store) will be influenced by any research you did online in advance of the purchase?” More so than ever, consumers plan to use the Internet to research holiday buys. % reporting that at least some of their spending will be influenced by online research 72% 74% 78% 76% 78% 82% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 75% -- Percent of shoppers who will look to online reviews from other customers 60% -- Percent of shoppers who will look to online recommendations by the retailer 50% -- Percent of shoppers who will refer to social media during the shopping process
29. 29. 29 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Respondents will most often look to social media to get gift ideas, find savings and read peer reviews. Among the 50% who plan to use social media for holiday shopping: Why? 76% of all respondents use social media sites (blogs, discussion groups, or social networks) (+4 vs. 2014) Activity Percentage Get gift ideas 51% Find discounts, coupons, sale information 50% Read reviews, "likes," or recommendations for products/stores 45% Browse products 42% Check with family/friends on gifts they want 33% Post comments or share links about stores, sales, products 22% +4 vs. 2014 +5 vs. 2014 +4 vs. 2014 44% 48% 45% 45% 50% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Will Use Social Media
30. 30. 30 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. With research in hand, most shoppers expect to make decisions – either about the specific item or category – before they visit the retailer’s store or website. On specific items you planned to buy before entering the store/initiating the shopping session On items within a specific category (e.g. clothes, toys) that you select based on ideas or inspiration you get from the store/ website On completely unplanned purchases In Store Or Online 57% 24% 19% “If you had to estimate based on the way you shop for the holidays when in physical stores” [also “when online”], “what percentage of purchases do you make….?”
31. 31. 31 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Consumers’ expectations of interactions with store associates Focused more on the transaction, shoppers say they expect store associates to enhance efficiency more so than to create a unique experience. 63% 59% 55% 43% 37% 22% Help me check out quickly Be knowledgeable about products Let me know about discounts/offers Has the ability to match any other retailer's prices Greet me promptly with a welcoming attitude Assist me with finding gifts Responses under 22% not shown In general, do you feel you are better connected to consumer information, including coupons, competitive pricing, and product availability than store associates are? YES = 61% -5 vs. 2014 +3 vs. 2014 +8 vs. 2014 -4 vs. 2014
32. 32. 32 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Despite the rise in digital influence, relatively few consumers desire to use in-store technologies beyond price checkers and self-checkout lanes. “Which of the following self-help technologies, if any, do you desire to be available during your in-store holiday shopping this year?” 57% 41% 17% 15% 13% 13% 12% 10% 10% 9% 21% Price checker Self-checkout payment lanes Information kiosks (e.g., access to the retailer's website) Retailer's mobile app Mobile payment (e.g., paying via a phone, tablet or laptop) Handheld product scanner Electronic shelf labeling Video screens demonstrating products In-store beacon technology that my smartphone can engage with Digital signage None of the above
33. 33. Retailer policies: Shipping and returns
34. 34. 34 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Free shipping and easy returns top the list of retailer policies, with price matching gaining in popularity. “In general, what retail offerings will you take advantage of when spending this holiday season?” 72% 55% 51% 33% 33% 31% 17% Free shipping Easy returns Price matching Extended holiday hours (open early/close late) Order online/pick up in-store Discounts on expedited shipping Free layaway 78% of respondents will be influenced by coupons/promotional offers (+4% vs. 2014) +6 vs. 2014
35. 35. 35 Copyright © 2015 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Free shipping tends to be more important than fast shipping; almost all consider ‘fast’ to be delivery within 2 days. “When you are shopping online, which of these two promises below would be more important to you?” Fast Shipping 13% Free Shipping 87% Fast Shipping Not Fast Shipping 96 96 92 63 18 10 4 4 8 37 82 90 Same day delivery Next day delivery Delivery within 2 days Delivery within 3-4 days Delivery within 5-7 days Delivery within 1-2 weeks “Which of the following would you consider to be ‘fast shipping’?”